Estimación del impacto económico por complicaciones cardiovasculares y de diabetes mellitus 2019-2028

BACKGROUND: Mexico is among the countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus and with cardiovascular diseases have a growing trend. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of complications due to cardiovascular events (CVE) and complications derived from diabetes mellitus (CDM) accumulated in the population entitled to the Mexican Institute for Social Security (IMSS) in the period 2019-2028, as well as their economic burden for medical benefits and economic benefits in a reference scenario and in a changed one due to the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The number of CVE and CDM from 2019-2028 was estimated, with a 10-year risk projection through the ESC CVD Risk Calculator and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study models, considering the risk factors of the eligible population. Similarly, CVE and CDM were estimated considering the modification of risk factors in the IMSS population derived from COVID-19. RESULTS: The number of accumulated cases of CVE and CDM from 2019 to 2028 was estimated at 2.96 million events (2 million CVE and 960 thousand CDM), having as a consequence an impact on medical spending of 439,523 million pesos (MP) and on economic benefits of 174,085 MP. When considering the impact of confinement derived from the COVID-19 pandemic, CVE and CDM events by 2028 increased by 589 thousand events, which will increase spending by 93,787 MP for medical care and 41,159 MP for economic benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Without a comprehensive intervention to manage risk factors for cardiovascular events and diabetic complications, spending on both diseases will continue to represent the largest expenditure on medical care and social benefits for IMSS.