Development and validation of a multimorbidity risk prediction nomogram among Chinese middle-aged and older adults: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to establish a self-simple-to-use nomogram to predict the risk of multimorbidity among middle-aged and older adults. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, including 7735 samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Samples’ demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyles and depression were collected. Cox proportional hazard models and nomogram model were used to estimate the risk factors of multimorbidity. RESULTS: A total of 3576 (46.2%) participants have multimorbidity. The result showed that age, female (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.89), chronic disease (HR 2.59, 95% CI 2.38 to 2.82), sleep time (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.85), regular physical activity (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.95), drinking (HR 1.27 95% CI 1.16 to 1.39), smoking (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.53), body mass index (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.05) and depression (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03) were associated with multimorbidity. The C-index of nomogram models for derivation and validation sets were 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.71, p=0.006) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.73, p=0.008), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have crafted a user-friendly nomogram model for predicting multimorbidity risk among middle-aged and older adults. This model integrates readily available and routinely assessed risk factors, enabling the early identification of high-risk individuals and offering tailored preventive and intervention strategies.