Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in county level of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China

Urban shrinkage has become increasingly prevalent in the context of global urbanization. Understanding its spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors is of great significance for promoting sustainable development and high-quality urbanization. This paper identified county-level shrinking cities in Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of urban entities. It employed spatial autocorrelation methods to analyze their spatial-temporal characteristics and explored the factors that contributed to this phenomenon. The results indicated that between 2010 and 2020, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage at the county level in Heilongjiang Province was primarily concentrated in the province's hinterland. Moreover, they exhibited characteristics of the Great Recession and Small Growth. The main factors influencing the shrinkage included the urban industrial structure, living standards, and population composition.