Triglycerides/HDL cholesterol ratio and type 2 diabetes incidence: Panasonic Cohort Study 10

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have investigated the association between the ratio of triglycerides (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and the incidence of diabetes in adults and discovered that a high TG/HDL-C ratio was linked to an elevated risk of new-onset diabetes. However, the comparison of predicting diabetes development among lipid profiles including the TG/HDL-C ratio, and the ratio of TG/HDL-C cut-off value has received limited attention. We examined the relationship between diabetes onset and the TG/HDL-C ratio in addition to the applicable cut-off value for predicting diabetes onset. METHODS: This study included 120,613 participants from the health examination database at Panasonic Corporation from 2008 to 2017. Cox regression analysis employing multivariable models was used to investigate the association between lipid profiles, particularly the ratio of TG/HDL-C and the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The multivariable model was adjusted for age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, plasma glucose levels after fasting, smoking status, and exercise habits. Areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) were employed to assess the prediction performance and cut-off values of each indicator. A fasting plasma glucose level of 126 mg/dL, a self-reported history of diabetes, or usage of antidiabetic medicines were used to identify T2D. RESULTS: During the course of the study, 6,080 people developed T2D. The median follow-up duration was 6.0 (3–10) years. Multivariable analysis revealed that the ratio of TG/HDL-C (per unit, HR; 1.03 [95% CI 1.02–1.03]) was substantially linked to the risk of incident T2D. AUC and cut-off points for the ratio of TG/HDL-C for T2D development after 10 years were 0.679 and 2.1, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC of the ratio of TG/HDL-C was considerably larger compared to that of LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG alone (all P < 0.001). We discovered an interaction effect between sex, BMI, and lipid profiles in subgroup analysis. Females and participants having a BMI of < 25 kg/m(2) showed a higher correlation between lipid profile levels and T2D onset. CONCLUSIONS: The ratio of TG/HDL-C was found to be a stronger predictor of T2D development within 10 years than LDL-C, HDL-C, or TG, indicating that it may be useful in future medical treatment support. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-02046-5.