An early prediction model for type 2 diabetes mellitus based on genetic variants and nongenetic risk factors in a Han Chinese cohort

AIMS: We aimed to construct a prediction model of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Han Chinese cohort using a genetic risk score (GRS) and a nongenetic risk score (NGRS). METHODS: A total of 297 Han Chinese subjects who were free from type 2 diabetes mellitus were selected from the Tianjin Medical University Chronic Disease Cohort for a prospective cohort study. Clinical characteristics were collected at baseline and subsequently tracked for a duration of 9 years. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were performed for T2DM-related phenotypes. The GRS was constructed using 13 T2DM-related quantitative trait single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) loci derived from GWASs, and NGRS was calculated from 4 biochemical indicators of independent risk that screened by multifactorial Cox regressions. RESULTS: We found that HOMA-IR, uric acid, and low HDL were independent risk factors for T2DM (HR >1; P<0.05), and the NGRS model was created using these three nongenetic risk factors, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.678; high fasting glucose (FPG >5 mmol/L) was a key risk factor for T2DM (HR = 7.174, P< 0.001), and its addition to the NGRS model caused a significant improvement in AUC (from 0.678 to 0.764). By adding 13 SNPs associated with T2DM to the GRS prediction model, the AUC increased to 0.892. The final combined prediction model was created by taking the arithmetic sum of the two models, which had an AUC of 0.908, a sensitivity of 0.845, and a specificity of 0.839. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a comprehensive prediction model for type 2 diabetes out of a Han Chinese cohort. Along with independent risk factors, GRS is a crucial element to predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.