The Nomogram predicting the overall survival of patients with pancreatic cancer treated with radiotherapy: a study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort

OBJECTIVE: Patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) have a poor prognosis. Radiotherapy (RT) is a standard palliative treatment in clinical practice, and there is no effective clinical prediction model to predict the prognosis of PC patients receiving radiotherapy. This study aimed to analyze PC’s clinical characteristics, find the factors affecting PC patients’ prognosis, and construct a visual Nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). METHODS: SEER*Stat software was used to collect clinical data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of 3570 patients treated with RT. At the same time, the relevant clinical data of 115 patients were collected from the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University. The SEER database data were randomly divided into the training and internal validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio, with all patients at The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University as the external validation cohort. The lasso regression was used to screen the relevant variables. All non-zero variables were included in the multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors. The Kaplan-Meier(K-M) method was used to plot the survival curves for different treatments (surgery, RT, chemotherapy, and combination therapy) and calculate the median OS. The Nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years, and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were plotted with the calculated curves. Calculate the area under the curve (AUC), the Bootstrap method was used to plot the calibration curve, and the clinical efficacy of the prediction model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The median OS was 25.0, 18.0, 11.0, and 4.0 months in the surgery combined with chemoradiotherapy (SCRT), surgery combined with radiotherapy, chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and RT alone cohorts, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, N stage, M stage, chemotherapy, surgery, lymph node surgery, and Grade were independent prognostic factors for patients. Nomogram models were constructed to predict patients’ OS. 1-, 3-, and 5-year Time-dependent ROC curves were plotted, and AUC values were calculated. The results suggested that the AUCs were 0.77, 0.79, and 0.79 for the training cohort, 0.79, 0.82, and 0.81 for the internal validation cohort, and 0.73, 0.93, and 0.88 for the external validation cohort. The calibration curves Show that the model prediction probability is in high agreement with the actual observation probability, and the DCA curve shows a high net return. CONCLUSION: SCRT significantly improves the OS of PC patients. We developed and validated a Nomogram to predict the OS of PC patients receiving RT.