Ecological niche modelling of two water-dependant birds informs the conservation needs of riverine ecosystems outside protected area network in the Eastern Himalaya, India

Common species often play vital roles in ecosystem functions and processes. Globally, conservation strategies are mostly focused on threatened species and rarely explored the potential of using common species as indicators of critical ecosystems. The Himalayan mountains have unique riverine ecosystems harbouring high diversity of specialist river birds. Ecological niche modelling provides effective tools to predict suitable habitats of a species and identify habitats for conservation. We used two common water-dependent bird species, Blue Whistling Thrush and White-capped Water Redstart as indicators of riverine ecosystems within the Sikkim Himalayan region and predicted their suitable habitats using an ensemble modelling approach. We selected six predictor variables for the final model including three bioclimatic and three topographic variables. For both species, bioclimatic variables such as mean annual temperature and precipitation were the most important factors compared to topographic variables. At least 70 percent of the most suitable habitats are distributed below 2000 m elevation alongside major drainages. Also, most of their potential habitats are distributed outside the protected area networks in the region. This habitat suitability pattern may be applied to other sympatric species in the region. Since major water bodies in Sikkim are largely affected by developmental activities and climate change, these riverine birds might face threats of losing suitable habitats. We recommend a dynamic approach to evaluate the habitat quality of riverine birds, especially outside protected area networks in the region to plan conservation strategies. This approach will ensure habitat conservation of many water-dependent birds and other taxa associated with the riverine ecosystems of the Eastern Himalaya.