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Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests

The increasing frequency of severe wildfires demands a shift in landscape management to mitigate their consequences. The role of managed, low-intensity fire as a driver of beneficial fuel treatment in fire-adapted ecosystems has drawn interest in both scientific and policy venues. Using a synthetic...

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Autores principales: Wu, Xiao, Sverdrup, Erik, Mastrandrea, Michael D., Wara, Michael W., Wager, Stefan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10637742/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37948522
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4123
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author Wu, Xiao
Sverdrup, Erik
Mastrandrea, Michael D.
Wara, Michael W.
Wager, Stefan
author_facet Wu, Xiao
Sverdrup, Erik
Mastrandrea, Michael D.
Wara, Michael W.
Wager, Stefan
author_sort Wu, Xiao
collection PubMed
description The increasing frequency of severe wildfires demands a shift in landscape management to mitigate their consequences. The role of managed, low-intensity fire as a driver of beneficial fuel treatment in fire-adapted ecosystems has drawn interest in both scientific and policy venues. Using a synthetic control approach to analyze 20 years of satellite-based fire activity data across 124,186 square kilometers of forests in California, we provide evidence that low-intensity fires substantially reduce the risk of future high-intensity fires. In conifer forests, the risk of high-intensity fire is reduced by 64.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 41.2 to 77.9%] in areas recently burned at low intensity relative to comparable unburned areas, and protective effects last for at least 6 years (lower bound of one-sided 95% CI: 6 years). These findings support a policy transition from fire suppression to restoration, through increased use of prescribed fire, cultural burning, and managed wildfire, of a presuppression and precolonial fire regime in California.
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spelling pubmed-106377422023-11-11 Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests Wu, Xiao Sverdrup, Erik Mastrandrea, Michael D. Wara, Michael W. Wager, Stefan Sci Adv Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences The increasing frequency of severe wildfires demands a shift in landscape management to mitigate their consequences. The role of managed, low-intensity fire as a driver of beneficial fuel treatment in fire-adapted ecosystems has drawn interest in both scientific and policy venues. Using a synthetic control approach to analyze 20 years of satellite-based fire activity data across 124,186 square kilometers of forests in California, we provide evidence that low-intensity fires substantially reduce the risk of future high-intensity fires. In conifer forests, the risk of high-intensity fire is reduced by 64.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 41.2 to 77.9%] in areas recently burned at low intensity relative to comparable unburned areas, and protective effects last for at least 6 years (lower bound of one-sided 95% CI: 6 years). These findings support a policy transition from fire suppression to restoration, through increased use of prescribed fire, cultural burning, and managed wildfire, of a presuppression and precolonial fire regime in California. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023-11-10 /pmc/articles/PMC10637742/ /pubmed/37948522 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4123 Text en Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences
Wu, Xiao
Sverdrup, Erik
Mastrandrea, Michael D.
Wara, Michael W.
Wager, Stefan
Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title_full Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title_fullStr Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title_full_unstemmed Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title_short Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
title_sort low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in california’s forests
topic Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10637742/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37948522
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4123
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