Assessing the prognostic impact of prostatic urethra involvement and developing a nomogram for T1 stage bladder cancer

PURPOSE: To investigate prognostic values of prostatic urethra involvement (PUI) and construct a prognostic model that estimates the probability of cancer-specific survival for T1 bladder cancer patients. METHOD AND MATERIALS: We investigated the national Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004–2015) to get patients diagnosed with T1 bladder cancer. An external validation cohort was obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University. The Kaplan–Meier method with the log-rank test was applied to assess cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Moreover, the propensity score matching (PSM) and multivariable Cox proportional hazard model were performed. All patients were randomly divided into the development cohort and validation group at the ratio of 7:3. The performance of the model was internally validated by calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index). RESULTS: The PUI group had a lower survival rate of both CSS and overall survival OS before and after PSM when compared to non-involved patients (All P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed a poor prognosis in the PUI group for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) analyses before and after PSM (All P < 0.05). Seven variables, including age, surgery, radiotherapy, tumour size, PUI, and marital status, were incorporated in the final nomogram. The C-index in the development cohort was 0.715 (0.711–0.719), while it was 0.672 (0.667–0.677) in the validation group. Calibration plots for 3- and 5-year cancer-specific survival showed good concordance in the development and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: PUI was an independent risk factor of ACM and CSM in T1 bladder cancer patients. In addition, a highly discriminative and precise nomogram that predicted the individualized probability of cancer-specific survival for patients with T1 bladder cancer was constructed. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12894-023-01342-2.