Age-Dependent Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Hazard Modeling From Serological Data

BACKGROUND: There is no immunization campaign that currently exist for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Seroprevalence studies are critical for assessing epidemiological dynamics before and during an immunization program. A systematic literature review was conducted to summarize the evidence from seroprevalence studies on RSV. METHODS: A systematic search of age-dependent RSV seroprevalence was conducted using the PubMed database and EMBASE. Age-dependent force of infections (FoI) and the decay rate of immunity were estimated. A mixture finite model was used, estimating the age-dependent disease state and the antibody concentrations in susceptible and infected or recovered populations. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were identified from 15 countries, with studies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay being the most represented. Using a catalytic model, the age-dependent force of infection was estimated to be the lowest in infants aged 6 months to 1 year and increased in older age groups. The proportion ever-infected/recovered was estimated to be above 90% by 3 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The number of seroprevalence studies covering a broad range of ages are limited. The age-dependent FoI indicated that the risk of infection was greatest among those aged >5 years. Additional data using valid assays are required to describe the transmission dynamics of RSV infection.