Cost-effectiveness analysis of antiretroviral drugs for treatment-naive HIV infection in China

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based regimen was included in the expanded formulary of China's National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program at the end of 2021. Yet high price of DTG and lack of health economic evaluation in China present barriers for implementation of the regimen. The study aims to investigate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of DTG-based regimen for treatment-naive HIV infection in China. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to obtain the costs and effectiveness of four regimens: Arm A, efavirenz (EFV)-based regimen; Arm B, DTG-based regimen; Arm C, elvitegravir/cobicistat/tenofovir alafenamide/emtricitabine (EVG/c/FTC/TAF) regimen; Arm D, abacavir/lamivudine/dolutegravir (ABC/3TC/DTG) regimen. The potential impact of national centralized drug procurement policy was assessed in scenario analysis. The results were further validated through sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared with other three regimens, DTG-based regimen led to the fewest cumulative adverse reactions, opportunistic infections and deaths. Compared with EFV-based regimen, the base-case ICERs for DTG-based regimen were 13,357 (USD/QALY) and 13,424 (USD/QALY) from the healthcare system and societal perspective respectively. In the policy scenario analysis with the procurement price of DTG equal to that of LPV/r, DTG-based regimen would be dominant. The model results remained robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: DTG-based regimen for treatment-naive patients is likely to be cost-effective and deserve wider implementation in China. This study strongly suggests the centralized procurement of DTG to minimize cost and maximize cost-effectiveness. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-17052-1.