Establishment and evaluation of a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy. The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally, and this trend is particularly evident in China, which has emerged as a significant issue impacting the well-being of expectant mothers and their fetuses. Identifying and addressing GDM in a timely manner is crucial for maintaining the health of both expectant mothers and their developing fetuses. Therefore, this study aims to establish a risk prediction model for GDM and explore the effects of serum ferritin, blood glucose, and body mass index (BMI) on the occurrence of GDM. AIM: To develop a risk prediction model to analyze factors leading to GDM, and evaluate its efficiency for early prevention. METHODS: The clinical data of 406 pregnant women who underwent routine prenatal examination in Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from April 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether GDM occurred, they were divided into two groups to analyze the related factors affecting GDM. Then, according to the weight of the relevant risk factors, the training set and the verification set were divided at a ratio of 7:3. Subsequently, a risk prediction model was established using logistic regression and random forest models, and the model was evaluated and verified. RESULTS: Pre-pregnancy BMI, previous history of GDM or macrosomia, hypertension, hemoglobin (Hb) level, triglyceride level, family history of diabetes, serum ferritin, and fasting blood glucose levels during early pregnancy were de-termined. These factors were found to have a significant impact on the development of GDM (P < 0.05). According to the nomogram model’s prediction of GDM in pregnancy, the area under the curve (AUC) was determined to be 0.883 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.846-0.921], and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.1% and 87.6%, respectively. The top five variables in the random forest model for predicting the occurrence of GDM were serum ferritin, fasting blood glucose in early pregnancy, pre-pregnancy BMI, Hb level and triglyceride level. The random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.950 (95%CI: 0.927-0.973), the sensitivity was 84.8%, and the specificity was 91.4%. The Delong test showed that the AUC value of the random forest model was higher than that of the decision tree model (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The random forest model is superior to the nomogram model in predicting the risk of GDM. This method is helpful for early diagnosis and appropriate intervention of GDM.