Variability in changes in physician outpatient antibiotic prescribing from 2019 to 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate inter-physician variability and predictors of changes in antibiotic prescribing before (2019) and during (2020/2021) the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of physicians in Ontario, Canada prescribing oral antibiotics in the outpatient setting between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021 using the IQVIA Xponent data set. The primary outcome was the change in the number of antibiotic prescriptions between the prepandemic and pandemic period. Secondary outcomes were changes in the selection of broad-spectrum agents and long-duration (>7 d) antibiotic use. We used multivariable linear regression models to evaluate predictors of change. RESULTS: There were 17,288 physicians included in the study with substantial inter-physician variability in changes in antibiotic prescribing (median change of −43.5 antibiotics per physician, interquartile range −136.5 to −5.0). In the multivariable model, later career stage (adjusted mean difference [aMD] −45.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] −52.9 to −37.8, p < .001), family medicine (aMD −46.0, 95% CI −62.5 to −29.4, p < .001), male patient sex (aMD −52.4, 95% CI −71.1 to −33.7, p < .001), low patient comorbidity (aMD −42.5, 95% CI −50.3 to −34.8, p < .001), and high prescribing to new patients (aMD −216.5, 95% CI −223.5 to −209.5, p < .001) were associated with decreases in antibiotic initiation. Family medicine and high prescribing to new patients were associated with a decrease in selection of broad-spectrum agents and prolonged antibiotic use. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescribing changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic with overall decreases in antibiotic initiation, broad-spectrum agents, and prolonged antibiotic courses with inter-physician variability. These findings present opportunities for community antibiotic stewardship interventions.