Comparison of METS-IR and HOMA-IR for predicting new-onset CKD in middle-aged and older adults

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has emerged as a mounting public health issue worldwide; therefore, prompt identification and prevention are imperative in mitigating CKD-associated complications and mortality rate. We aimed to compare the predictive powers of the homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) for CKD incidence in middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: This study used longitudinal prospective cohort data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. A total of 10,030 participants, aged 40–69 years, residing in the Ansung or Ansan regions of the Republic of Korea, were recruited between 2001 and 2002 through a two-stage cluster sampling method. We compared the predictive powers of METS-IR and HOMA-IR for CKD prevalence and incidence, respectively. CKD prevalence was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the indices’ predictive performance for CKD incidence were assessed using Harrell’s concordance index and time-dependent ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 9261 adults aged 40–69 years at baseline and 8243 adults without CKD were included in this study. The AUCs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of HOMA-IR and METS-IR for CKD prevalence at baseline were 0.577 (0.537–0.618) and 0.599 (0.560–0.637), respectively, with no significant difference (p = 0.337). The Heagerty’s integrated AUC for METS-IR in predicting CKD incidence was 0.772 (95% CI 0.750–0.799), which was significantly higher than that of HOMA-IR (0.767 [95% CI 0.742–0.791], p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: METS-IR surpassed HOMA-IR in predicting CKD incidence and was as effective as HOMA-IR in predicting CKD prevalence. This implies that METS-IR could be a valuable indicator for early detection and prevention of CKD among Korean adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-023-01214-7.