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A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy
We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10645303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37963148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293416 |
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author | Saviano, Mario Fierro, Annalisa Liccardo, Antonella |
author_facet | Saviano, Mario Fierro, Annalisa Liccardo, Antonella |
author_sort | Saviano, Mario |
collection | PubMed |
description | We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10645303 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-106453032023-11-14 A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy Saviano, Mario Fierro, Annalisa Liccardo, Antonella PLoS One Research Article We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants. Public Library of Science 2023-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10645303/ /pubmed/37963148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293416 Text en © 2023 Saviano et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Saviano, Mario Fierro, Annalisa Liccardo, Antonella A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title_full | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title_fullStr | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title_full_unstemmed | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title_short | A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy |
title_sort | deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of covid-19 in italy |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10645303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37963148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293416 |
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