Analysis of the Potential Range of Mountain Pine-Broadleaf Ecotone Forests and Its Changes under Moderate and Strong Climate Change in the 21st Century

Climatic changes have a significant impact on the composition and distribution of forests, especially on ecotone ones. In the Southern Ural, pine-broadleaf ecotone forests were widespread during the early Holocene time, but now have persisted as relic plant communities. This study aimed to analyze the current potential range and to model changes in habitat suitability of relic pine-broadleaf ecotone forests of the suballiance Tilio-Pinenion under scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change. For modelling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids and the digital elevation model. In the Southern and Middle Urals, climate change is expected to increase the areas with suitable habitat conditions of these forests by the middle of the 21st century and decrease them in the second half of the century. By the middle of the 21st century, the eastern range boundary of these forests will shift eastward due to the penetration of broad-leaved tree species into coniferous forests of the Southern Ural. In the second half of the century, on the contrary, it is expected that climate aridization will again shift the potential range border of these forests to the west due to their gradual replacement by hemiboreal coniferous forests. The relationship between the floristic composition of pine-broadleaf forests and habitat suitability was identified. In low and medium habitat suitability, pine-broadleaf forests contain more nemoral species characteristic of deciduous forests of the temperate zone, and can be replaced by broadleaf forests after thinning and removal of pine. In the Volga Upland, suitable habitats are occupied by pine-broadleaf forests of the vicariant suballiance Querco robori-Tilienion cordatae. Projected climatic changes will have a significant impact on these ecotone forests, which remained completely unaltered for a long time.