Development and validation of a predictive model for early diagnosis of neonatal acute respiratory distress syndrome based on the Montreux definition

OBJECTIVE: Based on the Montreux definition, we aim to develop and validate a predictive model for the early diagnosis of neonatal acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of clinical data on 198 neonates with respiratory distress from January 2018 to January 2022 was conducted. Neonates meeting Montreux definition were classified as ARDS group (n = 79), while the rest were non-ARDS group (n = 119). Univariate analysis identified indicators for neonatal ARDS, followed by logistic regression to construct a predictive model for early diagnosis. The ability of predictors and models to predict neonatal ARDS was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), and model performance was estimated through bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: Maternal prenatal fever, abnormal fetal heart beat, meconium-stained amniotic fluid (MSAF), white blood cell (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), neutrophil percentage (NE%), platelet count (PLT), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), creatine kinase (CK), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), serum calcium (Ca) and sodium (Na)exhibited significant differences between the ARDS group and the non-ARDS group (P < 0.05). MSAF (OR=5.037; 95% CI: 1.523–16.657; P < 0.05), ANC (OR = 1.324; 95% CI: 1.172–1.495; P < 0.05), PLT (OR = 0.979; 95% CI: 0.971–0.986; P < 0.05), Ca (OR = 0.020; 95% CI: 0.004–0.088; P < 0.05) emerged as independent risk factors for the development of ARDS. The respective AUC values for MSAF, ANC, PLT, Ca, and the combined prediction models were 0.606, 0.691, 0.808, 0.761 and 0.931. Internal validation showed that the C-index for the model was 0.931. CONCLUSIONS: Early application of the model combining MSAF, ANC, PLT and Ca may have a good predictive effect on the early diagnosis of neonatal ARDS.