Assessment HOMA as a predictor for new onset diabetes mellitus and diabetic complications in non-diabetic adults: a KoGES prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) is a biomarker for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the role of HOMA-IR in the non-diabetic is unclear. This study aimed to determine whether IR measured HOMA-IR value is associated with new onset diabetes as well as vascular disease and can be used as an early predictor for diabetes and vascular diseases in non-diabetic participants. METHODS: From a prospective community-based cohort of 10,030 individuals, 4314 individuals younger than 65 years and without diabetes were enrolled and divided into three groups by baseline HOMA-IR tertiles: low (n = 1454), moderate (n = 1414), and high (n = 1446). The primary outcome was new onset T2DM. Secondary outcomes were chronic kidney disease (CKD) and a composite of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke as macrovascular events. RESULTS: The mean age was 51 years. The prevalence of hypertension and cholesterol and HbA1c were higher in the high HOMA-IR group. New onset T2DM (5.8%) and CKD (12.2%) incidence in the high HOMA-IR group was higher than that in the others. The prevalence of macrovascular events did not differ among groups. High-HOMA-IR was an independent risk factor for new onset T2DM (odds ratio 1.86 [1.17–2.96]; p = 0.01) and CKD (1.49 [1.12–1.98]; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: High HOMA-IR was an early predictor of new onset T2DM and CKD, regardless of HbA1c in non-diabetic individuals. Further research on the specific cut off value will be needed. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40842-023-00156-3.