Dynamic evolution and impact mechanism of human capital mismatch in strategic emerging industries: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta region of China

China's “demographic dividend” has gradually disappeared since 2013, but the problem of human capital mismatch prevails in various industries and sectors, and improving human capital mismatch and optimizing the allocation of human capital has become an important measure for high-quality economic development. This study uses panel data at the provincial level in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2012 to 2021 and employs spatial econometric models to quantitatively analyze the index of human capital mismatch, the impact mechanism, and spatial interaction effects in strategic emerging industries. The results show that the spatial agglomeration and dependence of human capital mismatch decreased in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the index of human capital mismatch in strategic emerging industries is generally insufficient. The shortage of talent supply within industries is particularly severe in high-end equipment manufacturing and biotechnology industries. Second, fiscal subsidies have exacerbated human capital mismatches in both local and neighboring areas, with significant spatial spillover effects. Urbanization has exacerbated local human capital mismatches but has improved the degree of human capital mismatch in neighboring areas. The index of industrial structural adjustment is generally conducive to alleviating human capital mismatches. Distorted markets and financial levels have accelerated human capital mismatches by distorting the efficiency of human capital allocation. Third, regional heterogeneity significantly influences the spatial interaction effects of human capital mismatches. This study contributes to improving the situation of human capital mismatch in strategic emerging industries in the Yangtze River Delta and provides theoretical and policy recommendations for local governments.