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Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China

China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty dec...

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Autores principales: Hao, Xu, Saafi, Mohamed Ali, Ou, Shiqi, He, Xin, Jiang, Yilan, Lin, Zhenhong, Yu, Rujie, Gan, Yu, Lu, Zifeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10654536/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38026176
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.108203
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author Hao, Xu
Saafi, Mohamed Ali
Ou, Shiqi
He, Xin
Jiang, Yilan
Lin, Zhenhong
Yu, Rujie
Gan, Yu
Lu, Zifeng
author_facet Hao, Xu
Saafi, Mohamed Ali
Ou, Shiqi
He, Xin
Jiang, Yilan
Lin, Zhenhong
Yu, Rujie
Gan, Yu
Lu, Zifeng
author_sort Hao, Xu
collection PubMed
description China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO(2)-eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.
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spelling pubmed-106545362023-10-14 Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China Hao, Xu Saafi, Mohamed Ali Ou, Shiqi He, Xin Jiang, Yilan Lin, Zhenhong Yu, Rujie Gan, Yu Lu, Zifeng iScience Article China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO(2)-eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment. Elsevier 2023-10-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10654536/ /pubmed/38026176 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.108203 Text en © 2023 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Hao, Xu
Saafi, Mohamed Ali
Ou, Shiqi
He, Xin
Jiang, Yilan
Lin, Zhenhong
Yu, Rujie
Gan, Yu
Lu, Zifeng
Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title_full Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title_fullStr Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title_short Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China
title_sort assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10654536/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38026176
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.108203
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