An effective prediction model based on XGBoost for the 12-month recurrence of AF patients after RFA

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common heart rhythm disorder that can lead to complications such as stroke and heart failure. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a procedure used to treat AF, but it is not always successful in maintaining a normal heart rhythm. This study aimed to construct a clinical prediction model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) for AF recurrence 12 months after ablation. METHODS: The 27-dimensional data of 359 patients with AF undergoing RFA in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from October 2018 to November 2021 were retrospectively analysed. We adopted the logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and XGBoost methods to conduct the experiment. To evaluate the performance of the prediction, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (AP), and calibration curves of both the training and testing sets. Finally, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were utilized to explain the significance of the variables. RESULTS: Of the 27-dimensional variables, ejection fraction (EF) of the left atrial appendage (LAA), N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), global peak longitudinal strain of the LAA (LAAGPLS), left atrial diameter (LAD), diabetes mellitus (DM) history, and female sex had a significant role in the predictive model. The experimental results demonstrated that XGBoost exhibited the best performance among these methods, and the accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, precision and F1 score (a measure of test accuracy) of XGBoost were 86.1%, 89.7%, 71.4%, 62.5% and 0.67, respectively. In addition, SHAP analysis also proved that the 6 parameters were decisive for the effect of the XGBoost-based prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: We proposed an effective model based on XGBoost that can be used to predict the recurrence of AF patients after RFA. This prediction result can guide treatment decisions and help to optimize the management of AF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-023-03599-9.