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Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation

Spatial models jointly simulating population and land-use change provide support for policy-making, by allowing to explore territorial developments under alternative scenarios and resulting impacts in the environment, economy and society. However, their ability to reproduce observed spatial patterns...

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Autores principales: Diogo, Vasco, Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris, Baranzelli, Claudia, Lavalle, Carlo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10656325/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38020868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x
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author Diogo, Vasco
Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris
Baranzelli, Claudia
Lavalle, Carlo
author_facet Diogo, Vasco
Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris
Baranzelli, Claudia
Lavalle, Carlo
author_sort Diogo, Vasco
collection PubMed
description Spatial models jointly simulating population and land-use change provide support for policy-making, by allowing to explore territorial developments under alternative scenarios and resulting impacts in the environment, economy and society. However, their ability to reproduce observed spatial patterns is rarely evaluated through model validation. This lack of insight prevents researchers and policy-makers of fully grasping the ability of existing models to provide sensible projections of future land use and population density. In this article, we address this gap by performing a model validation of the LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform, a spatial model jointly simulating population and land use at a fine resolution (100 m) in the European Union and United Kingdom. In particular, we compare observed and simulated patterns of population and urban residential land-use change for the period of 1990–2015, and evaluate the model performance according to different degrees of urbanisation. The results show that model performance can vary depending on the context, even when the same data and methods are uniformly applied. The model performed consistently well in urban areas characterized by compact urban growth, but poorly where residential development occurred predominantly in scattered patterns across rural areas. Overall, the model tends to favour the formation of densely populated, highly accessible urban conglomerations, which often do not entirely correspond to the observed patterns. Based on the validation results, we propose directions for further model improvement and development. Model validation should be regarded as a critical step, and an integral part, in the process of developing models for policy support. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x.
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spelling pubmed-106563252023-06-01 Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation Diogo, Vasco Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris Baranzelli, Claudia Lavalle, Carlo Appl Spat Anal Policy Article Spatial models jointly simulating population and land-use change provide support for policy-making, by allowing to explore territorial developments under alternative scenarios and resulting impacts in the environment, economy and society. However, their ability to reproduce observed spatial patterns is rarely evaluated through model validation. This lack of insight prevents researchers and policy-makers of fully grasping the ability of existing models to provide sensible projections of future land use and population density. In this article, we address this gap by performing a model validation of the LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform, a spatial model jointly simulating population and land use at a fine resolution (100 m) in the European Union and United Kingdom. In particular, we compare observed and simulated patterns of population and urban residential land-use change for the period of 1990–2015, and evaluate the model performance according to different degrees of urbanisation. The results show that model performance can vary depending on the context, even when the same data and methods are uniformly applied. The model performed consistently well in urban areas characterized by compact urban growth, but poorly where residential development occurred predominantly in scattered patterns across rural areas. Overall, the model tends to favour the formation of densely populated, highly accessible urban conglomerations, which often do not entirely correspond to the observed patterns. Based on the validation results, we propose directions for further model improvement and development. Model validation should be regarded as a critical step, and an integral part, in the process of developing models for policy support. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x. Springer Netherlands 2023-06-01 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10656325/ /pubmed/38020868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Diogo, Vasco
Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris
Baranzelli, Claudia
Lavalle, Carlo
Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title_full Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title_fullStr Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title_full_unstemmed Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title_short Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: a Pan-European Model Validation
title_sort integrated spatial simulation of population and urban land use: a pan-european model validation
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10656325/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38020868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x
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