Enhancing prognostic accuracy: a SEER-based analysis for overall and cancer-specific survival prediction in cervical adenocarcinoma patients

BACKGROUND: Cervical adenocarcinoma (CA) is the second most prevalent histological subtype of cervical cancer, following cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC). As stated in the guidelines provided by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, they are staged and treated similarly. However, compared with CSCC patients, CA patients are more prone to lymph node metastasis and recurrence with a poorer prognosis. The objective of this research was to discover prognostic indicators and develop nomograms that can be utilized to anticipate the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients diagnosed with CA. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database, individuals with CA who received their diagnosis between 2004 and 2015 were identified. A total cohort (n = 4485) was randomly classified into two separate groups in a 3:2 ratio, to form a training cohort (n = 2679) and a testing cohort (n = 1806). Overall survival (OS) was the primary outcome measure and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was the secondary outcome measure. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were employed to select significant independent factors and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis was utilized to develop predictive nomogram models. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were assessed by employing metrics such as the calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the concordance index (C-index). RESULTS: Age, Tumor Node Metastasis stages (T, N, and M), SEER stage, grade, and tumor size were assessed as common independent predictors of both OS and CSS. The C-index value of the nomograms for predicting OS was 0.832 (95% CI 0.817–0.847) in the training cohort and 0.823 (95% CI 0.805–0.841) in the testing cohort. CONCLUSION: We developed and verified nomogram models for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year OS and CSS among patients with cervical adenocarcinoma. These models exhibited excellent performance in prognostic prediction, providing support and assisting clinicians in assessing survival prognosis and devising personalized treatments for CA patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-023-05399-2.