Impact of aging-related consumption trend on carbon emission efficiency in China: mediation effect model based on industrial structure adjustment

With the deepening of China’s aging process, changes in the age structure of the population affect the industrial structure and consumption structure in different ways and have a knock-on effect on the whole economic system. Therefore, aging is one of the objective factors affecting future carbon emissions in China. This study analyzes the impact mechanism of aging-related consumption trend on carbon emission efficiency (CEE) based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the aging-related consumption trend is conducive to the improvement of regional CEE, and the mediation transmission mechanism of industrial structure adjustment is obvious, with a coefficient of 0.1496. The core industry closely linked to the demand for aging-related consumption is consumer services. The promotion of the consumption demand of the aging in the eastern region on the CEE and the transmission stimulation of the industrial structure adjustment are the most obvious. The mediation effect in the central and western regions is relatively weak, and the aging-related consumption demand has not formed a positive interaction with the aging industry. Therefore, improving the market construction of products and services for the aging is beneficial to achieve a virtuous cycle of aging-related consumption upgrading and carbon emission efficiency. This research can provide insights for China to promote industrial structure transformation within the aging trend and also help China meet its carbon neutrality target on schedule.