Risk profiles for smoke behavior in COVID-19: a classification and regression tree analysis approach

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic emerged worldwide at the end of 2019, causing a severe global public health threat, and smoking is closely related to COVID-19. Previous studies have reported changes in smoking behavior and influencing factors during the COVID-19 period, but none of them explored the main influencing factor and high-risk populations for smoking behavior during this period. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide survey and obtained 21,916 valid data. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationships between each potential influencing factor (sociodemographic characteristics, perceived social support, depression, anxiety, and self-efficacy) and smoking outcomes. Then, variables related to smoking behavior were included based on the results of the multiple logistic regression, and the classification and regression tree (CART) method was used to determine the high-risk population for increased smoking behavior during COVID-19 and the most profound influencing factors on smoking increase. Finally, we used accuracy to evaluated the performance of the tree. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of smoking behavior during the COVID-19 period is acceptance degree of passive smoking. The subgroup with a high acceptation degree of passive smoking, have no smokers smoked around, and a length of smoking of ≥ 30 years is identified as the highest smoking risk (34%). The accuracy of classification and regression tree is 87%. CONCLUSION: The main influencing factor is acceptance degree of passive smoking. More knowledge about the harm of secondhand smoke should be promoted. For high-risk population who smoke, the “mask protection” effect during the COVID-19 pandemic should be fully utilized to encourage smoking cessation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-17224-z.