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Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model

The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits a...

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Autores principales: Ferraguti, Martina, Dimas Martins, Afonso, Artzy-Randrup, Yael
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10665159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38024254
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100638
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author Ferraguti, Martina
Dimas Martins, Afonso
Artzy-Randrup, Yael
author_facet Ferraguti, Martina
Dimas Martins, Afonso
Artzy-Randrup, Yael
author_sort Ferraguti, Martina
collection PubMed
description The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV invasion into susceptible communities the most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three vector (eco)types, Culex pipiens pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, and their hybrids, and two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) and humans (as dead-end hosts). We investigated how differences in feeding preferences and transmission rates influenced WNV transmission across different habitats and two seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate the impact of increasing mosquitoes on the WNV transmission risk. Our results showed that vector feeding preferences and the transmission rate between mosquitoes and birds were the parameters that most influenced WNV invasion risk. Even though our model did not predict WNV invasion across any of the studied environments, we found that natural habitats displayed the highest susceptibility to WNV invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as the primary vector in all habitats. Hybrids, contrary to common opinion, showed minimal involvement in WNV transmission. However, it is important to interpret our study results with caution due to the possibility of idealized spring and summer seasons being reflected in the field-collected data. Our study could be a tool to enhance current vector surveillance and control programs by targeting specific vector types in specific environments, especially in natural habitat, which are most responsive to environmental shifts. The joint approach based on epidemiological modelling based on field collected data can help to reduce wasted time and economic costs while maximizing the efficiency of local public health authorities.
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spelling pubmed-106651592023-10-08 Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model Ferraguti, Martina Dimas Martins, Afonso Artzy-Randrup, Yael One Health Research Paper The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV invasion into susceptible communities the most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three vector (eco)types, Culex pipiens pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, and their hybrids, and two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) and humans (as dead-end hosts). We investigated how differences in feeding preferences and transmission rates influenced WNV transmission across different habitats and two seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate the impact of increasing mosquitoes on the WNV transmission risk. Our results showed that vector feeding preferences and the transmission rate between mosquitoes and birds were the parameters that most influenced WNV invasion risk. Even though our model did not predict WNV invasion across any of the studied environments, we found that natural habitats displayed the highest susceptibility to WNV invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as the primary vector in all habitats. Hybrids, contrary to common opinion, showed minimal involvement in WNV transmission. However, it is important to interpret our study results with caution due to the possibility of idealized spring and summer seasons being reflected in the field-collected data. Our study could be a tool to enhance current vector surveillance and control programs by targeting specific vector types in specific environments, especially in natural habitat, which are most responsive to environmental shifts. The joint approach based on epidemiological modelling based on field collected data can help to reduce wasted time and economic costs while maximizing the efficiency of local public health authorities. Elsevier 2023-10-08 /pmc/articles/PMC10665159/ /pubmed/38024254 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100638 Text en © 2023 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Paper
Ferraguti, Martina
Dimas Martins, Afonso
Artzy-Randrup, Yael
Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title_full Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title_fullStr Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title_short Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model
title_sort quantifying the invasion risk of west nile virus: insights from a multi-vector and multi-host seir model
topic Research Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10665159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38024254
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100638
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