The prediction model of operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia stage III-IV: A multicenter study

PURPOSE: Intestinal metaplasia plays a crucial role in the risk stratification of gastric cancer development. The objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for Operative Link on Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia (OLGIM) Stage III-IV. METHODS: We analyzed 7945 high-risk gastric cancer individuals from 115 hospitals who underwent questionnaires and gastroscope. The participants were assigned to either the development or validation cohort randomly. Demographics and clinical characteristics were obtained. The outcome measurement was OLGIM III-IV. Univariate logistic regression was used for feature selection and multivariate logistic analysis was performed to develop the nomogram. Area under the curves, calibration plots, decision curve and clinical impact analysis were used to assess the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: 4600 individuals and 3345 individuals were included in the development and validation cohort, of which 124 and 86 individuals were diagnosed with OLGIM III-IV, respectively. Parameters in the training validation cohort matched well and there was no significant difference between two cohorts. A nomogram model for predicting OLGIM Stage III-IV consisted of 4 significantly associated variables, including age, gender, PG I and G-17 (AUC 0.723 and 0.700 for the 2 cohorts). The nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in the calibration curve. Decision curve and clinical impact analysis suggested clinical benefit of the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: This reliable individualized nomogram might contribute to more accurate management for patients with OLGIM III-IV. Therefore, we suggest that this study be used as an incentive to promote the application.