Factors affecting the relative abundance in an overfished stock: red grouper (Epinephelus morio) in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

The most important fisheries are recording catches below their historical averages despite increased effort. This level of overfishing is worrying and requires the establishment of feasible and precise measures to prevent a continuing decrease in biomass. Determining the factors that lead to changes in the abundance and distribution of overfished resources would allow us to identify the strengths and weaknesses of management schemes; this approach would also make it possible to estimate more accurate parameters for their evaluation. We hypothesize that environmental, temporal, spatial, and operational components contribute to the variation in the relative abundance. Thus, we analyzed the red grouper fishery, the most important demersal fishery in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (SGM); it is locally known as escama. We employed the catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an index of relative abundance recorded by the semi-industrial fleet (kilogram per effective fishing day) and the small-scale fleet (kilogram per effective fishing hour) during the overexploitation phase (from 1996 to 2019). We fitted several variables of the components using generalized additive models (GAM) and used multi-model inference to determine the best GAM for each fleet. For both fleets, the operational and temporal components (fishing gear and year) have had a greater impact on the distribution and abundance of red grouper in the SGM than the spatial and environmental components (the place of origin and sea surface temperature). These findings encourage the exploration of métier schemes for more efficient fishery management. In addition, we have identified several strategies that would support the recovery of the resource, such as restricting fishing in the quadrants located to the northeast or regulating scuba diving. We recommend that in the future, researchers use the indices we have generated in the present study to evaluate the red grouper fishery.