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The social costs of tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here deriv...

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Autores principales: Krichene, Hazem, Vogt, Thomas, Piontek, Franziska, Geiger, Tobias, Schötz, Christof, Otto, Christian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10667268/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37996428
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43114-4
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author Krichene, Hazem
Vogt, Thomas
Piontek, Franziska
Geiger, Tobias
Schötz, Christof
Otto, Christian
author_facet Krichene, Hazem
Vogt, Thomas
Piontek, Franziska
Geiger, Tobias
Schötz, Christof
Otto, Christian
author_sort Krichene, Hazem
collection PubMed
description Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here derive temperature-dependent damage functions for 41 TC-affected countries to quantify the country-level SCC induced by the persistent growth effects of damaging TCs. We find that accounting for TC impacts substantially increases the global SCC by more than 20%; median global SCC increases from US$ 173 to US$ 212 per tonne of CO(2) under a middle-of-the-road future emission and socioeconomic development scenario. This increase is mainly driven by the strongly TC-affected major greenhouse gas emitting countries India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This suggests that the benefits of climate policies could currently be substantially underestimated. Adequately accounting for the damages of extreme weather events in policy evaluation may therefore help to prevent a critical lack of climate action.
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spelling pubmed-106672682023-11-23 The social costs of tropical cyclones Krichene, Hazem Vogt, Thomas Piontek, Franziska Geiger, Tobias Schötz, Christof Otto, Christian Nat Commun Article Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here derive temperature-dependent damage functions for 41 TC-affected countries to quantify the country-level SCC induced by the persistent growth effects of damaging TCs. We find that accounting for TC impacts substantially increases the global SCC by more than 20%; median global SCC increases from US$ 173 to US$ 212 per tonne of CO(2) under a middle-of-the-road future emission and socioeconomic development scenario. This increase is mainly driven by the strongly TC-affected major greenhouse gas emitting countries India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This suggests that the benefits of climate policies could currently be substantially underestimated. Adequately accounting for the damages of extreme weather events in policy evaluation may therefore help to prevent a critical lack of climate action. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-11-23 /pmc/articles/PMC10667268/ /pubmed/37996428 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43114-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Krichene, Hazem
Vogt, Thomas
Piontek, Franziska
Geiger, Tobias
Schötz, Christof
Otto, Christian
The social costs of tropical cyclones
title The social costs of tropical cyclones
title_full The social costs of tropical cyclones
title_fullStr The social costs of tropical cyclones
title_full_unstemmed The social costs of tropical cyclones
title_short The social costs of tropical cyclones
title_sort social costs of tropical cyclones
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10667268/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37996428
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43114-4
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