Multinomial machine learning identifies independent biomarkers by integrated metabolic analysis of acute coronary syndrome

A multi-class classification model for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains to be constructed based on multi-fluid metabolomics. Major confounders may exert spurious effects on the relationship between metabolism and ACS. The study aims to identify an independent biomarker panel for the multiclassification of HC, UA, and AMI by integrating serum and urinary metabolomics. We performed a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS)-based metabolomics study on 300 serum and urine samples from 44 patients with unstable angina (UA), 77 with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and 29 healthy controls (HC). Multinomial machine learning approaches, including multinomial adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and random forest (RF), and assessment of the confounders were applied to integrate a multi-class classification biomarker panel for HC, UA and AMI. Different metabolic landscapes were portrayed during the transition from HC to UA and then to AMI. Glycerophospholipid metabolism and arginine biosynthesis were predominant during the progression from HC to UA and then to AMI. The multiclass metabolic diagnostic model (MDM) dependent on ACS, including 2-ketobutyric acid, LysoPC(18:2(9Z,12Z)), argininosuccinic acid, and cyclic GMP, demarcated HC, UA, and AMI, providing a C-index of 0.84 (HC vs. UA), 0.98 (HC vs. AMI), and 0.89 (UA vs. AMI). The diagnostic value of MDM largely derives from the contribution of 2-ketobutyric acid, and LysoPC(18:2(9Z,12Z)) in serum. Higher 2-ketobutyric acid and cyclic GMP levels were positively correlated with ACS risk and atherosclerosis plaque burden, while LysoPC(18:2(9Z,12Z)) and argininosuccinic acid showed the reverse relationship. An independent multiclass biomarker panel for HC, UA, and AMI was constructed using the multinomial machine learning methods based on serum and urinary metabolite signatures.