Cargando…

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040

The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across t...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Brenner, Darren R., Carbonell, Chantelle, O’Sullivan, Dylan E., Ruan, Yibing, Basmadjian, Robert B., Bu, Vickey, Farah, Eliya, Loewen, Shaun K., Bond, Tara R., Estey, Angela, Pujadas Botey, Anna, Robson, Paula J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10670527/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37999145
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725
_version_ 1785149321697558528
author Brenner, Darren R.
Carbonell, Chantelle
O’Sullivan, Dylan E.
Ruan, Yibing
Basmadjian, Robert B.
Bu, Vickey
Farah, Eliya
Loewen, Shaun K.
Bond, Tara R.
Estey, Angela
Pujadas Botey, Anna
Robson, Paula J.
author_facet Brenner, Darren R.
Carbonell, Chantelle
O’Sullivan, Dylan E.
Ruan, Yibing
Basmadjian, Robert B.
Bu, Vickey
Farah, Eliya
Loewen, Shaun K.
Bond, Tara R.
Estey, Angela
Pujadas Botey, Anna
Robson, Paula J.
author_sort Brenner, Darren R.
collection PubMed
description The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998–2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000–2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10670527
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-106705272023-11-18 Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040 Brenner, Darren R. Carbonell, Chantelle O’Sullivan, Dylan E. Ruan, Yibing Basmadjian, Robert B. Bu, Vickey Farah, Eliya Loewen, Shaun K. Bond, Tara R. Estey, Angela Pujadas Botey, Anna Robson, Paula J. Curr Oncol Article The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998–2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000–2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment. MDPI 2023-11-18 /pmc/articles/PMC10670527/ /pubmed/37999145 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Brenner, Darren R.
Carbonell, Chantelle
O’Sullivan, Dylan E.
Ruan, Yibing
Basmadjian, Robert B.
Bu, Vickey
Farah, Eliya
Loewen, Shaun K.
Bond, Tara R.
Estey, Angela
Pujadas Botey, Anna
Robson, Paula J.
Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title_full Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title_fullStr Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title_full_unstemmed Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title_short Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040
title_sort exploring the future of cancer impact in alberta: projections and trends 2020–2040
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10670527/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37999145
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol30110725
work_keys_str_mv AT brennerdarrenr exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT carbonellchantelle exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT osullivandylane exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT ruanyibing exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT basmadjianrobertb exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT buvickey exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT faraheliya exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT loewenshaunk exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT bondtarar exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT esteyangela exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT pujadasboteyanna exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040
AT robsonpaulaj exploringthefutureofcancerimpactinalbertaprojectionsandtrends20202040