Comparison of Elicitation Approaches in Early Stage HTA Applied on Artificial Thymus for Patients with DiGeorge Syndrome

This paper focuses on research in expert elicitation as a part of the early stage health technology assessment (eHTA). The current state of affairs is analysed and two elicitation approaches are compared—the four fixed intervals method and the histogram method—as applied to an example of early assessment of clinical effectiveness of artificial thymus for patients with DiGeorge syndrome. A survey was carried out consisting of four questions concerning the topic, with the aim to apply the elicitation methods. Eight experts answered the questions using both elicitation methods. Based on their answers, the methods were compared visually and by means of statistical tests. In order to compare the perception of the two elicitation methods, the survey also included questions regarding the experts’ subjective preferences. The results of the comparison of the two elicitation approaches did not clearly confirm which method was more beneficial and better; however, it was possible to indicate which of the two methods is better suited for different types of experts. Before selecting an elicitation method as a part of eHTA, it is advisable to effectively consider the technology to be assessed and the type of experts to be invited to share their opinion.