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Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022

To evaluate the impact of a two-dose VarV program on varicella incidence among the whole population, considering the influence of public health and social measures (PHSMs), we extracted surveillance data on varicella cases during 2013–2022 in Minhang, Shanghai. Then, we estimated the incidence trend...

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Autores principales: Shi, Liming, Lu, Jia, Sun, Xiaodong, Li, Zhi, Zhang, Liping, Lu, Yihan, Yao, Ye
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10674188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38006006
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11111674
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author Shi, Liming
Lu, Jia
Sun, Xiaodong
Li, Zhi
Zhang, Liping
Lu, Yihan
Yao, Ye
author_facet Shi, Liming
Lu, Jia
Sun, Xiaodong
Li, Zhi
Zhang, Liping
Lu, Yihan
Yao, Ye
author_sort Shi, Liming
collection PubMed
description To evaluate the impact of a two-dose VarV program on varicella incidence among the whole population, considering the influence of public health and social measures (PHSMs), we extracted surveillance data on varicella cases during 2013–2022 in Minhang, Shanghai. Then, we estimated the incidence trend of varicella through interrupted time-series analyses and quantified the impact of the immunization program and PHSMs using Serfling regression. We also explored the associations between PHSMs and varicella cases. The implementation of the two-dose VarV strategy was followed by a significant decrease in varicella incidence (−1.84% per month). After one year of the program, varicella incidence was estimated at a 45.25% reduction, which was higher in children (59.12% and 54.09%) than in adults (19.49%). The decrease attributed to PHSMs was 31.26% during 2020–2022, and school closing was identified as the most relevant PHSM (b = −8.03 cases, r = −0.67 with a 1-week lag). These findings indicate that the two-dose immunization program has more effectively reduced the varicella incidence compared with the one-dose vaccine, and interventions like school closings are also encouraged to serve as supplementary measures to prevent varicella epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-106741882023-11-01 Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022 Shi, Liming Lu, Jia Sun, Xiaodong Li, Zhi Zhang, Liping Lu, Yihan Yao, Ye Vaccines (Basel) Article To evaluate the impact of a two-dose VarV program on varicella incidence among the whole population, considering the influence of public health and social measures (PHSMs), we extracted surveillance data on varicella cases during 2013–2022 in Minhang, Shanghai. Then, we estimated the incidence trend of varicella through interrupted time-series analyses and quantified the impact of the immunization program and PHSMs using Serfling regression. We also explored the associations between PHSMs and varicella cases. The implementation of the two-dose VarV strategy was followed by a significant decrease in varicella incidence (−1.84% per month). After one year of the program, varicella incidence was estimated at a 45.25% reduction, which was higher in children (59.12% and 54.09%) than in adults (19.49%). The decrease attributed to PHSMs was 31.26% during 2020–2022, and school closing was identified as the most relevant PHSM (b = −8.03 cases, r = −0.67 with a 1-week lag). These findings indicate that the two-dose immunization program has more effectively reduced the varicella incidence compared with the one-dose vaccine, and interventions like school closings are also encouraged to serve as supplementary measures to prevent varicella epidemics. MDPI 2023-11-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10674188/ /pubmed/38006006 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11111674 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Shi, Liming
Lu, Jia
Sun, Xiaodong
Li, Zhi
Zhang, Liping
Lu, Yihan
Yao, Ye
Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title_full Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title_fullStr Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title_short Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013–2022
title_sort impact of varicella immunization and public health and social measures on varicella incidence: insights from surveillance data in shanghai, 2013–2022
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10674188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38006006
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11111674
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