Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in Iran and its projections through 2050: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is one of the most common causes of vision loss. A substantial increase in the burden of AMD is expected in the aging populations, including the Iranians. We investigated the age and gender-specific prevalence of AMD and its determinants in Iran. METHODS: We systematically searched international (PubMed, Scopus, Embase, etc.) and local (IranDoc, Magiran, etc.) online databases. We included cross-sectional or cohort studies, either clinic- or population-based, published on the prevalence of AMD among Iranians, with no limitation on age. Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) tools for critical appraisal were used. Prevalence estimates are pooled by applying random-effects modeling. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed. RESULTS: Seventeen studies with 16,120 participants were included. Based on studies in general population, the pooled prevalence of AMD was 10.8% (95% CI: 6.5-16.2%) in males, and 9.8% (95% CI: 4.7-16.4%) in females. 8.5% of moderate vision impaired, 13.6% of severe vision impaired, and 15.7% of blind participants were affected by AMD. The prevalence of AMD was 2% in 40–49, and 32.3% in the ≥ 80 population. The prevalence of AMD was 11.9% among the visually impaired vs. 8.7% in the general population. The study’s sampling method, location, and mean age were correlated with the heterogeneities of the prevalence. We observed an increasing trend in the number of AMD cases (average annual percent change = 3.66%; 95% CI: 3.65–3.67%) from 1990 to 2050. The expected number of AMD cases in Iran will be near 5.5 million by 2050. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of AMD in Iran was somewhere between the prevalence of Asians and Europeans. Given the aging trend of the Iranian community and an average annual percent change of 3.66%, it is indispensable to adopt preventive and screening policies to diminish the burden of the disease in the future decades. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12886-023-03218-3.