Nomogram based on clinical characteristics and radiological features for the preoperative prediction of spread through air spaces in patients with clinical stage IA non-small cell lung cancer: a multicenter study

PURPOSE: To investigate the value of clinical characteristics and radiological features for predicting spread through air spaces (STAS) in patients with clinical stage IA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: A total of 336 patients with NSCLC from our hospital were randomly divided into two groups, i.e., the training cohort (n = 236) and the internal validation cohort (n = 100) (7:3 ratio). Furthermore, 69 patients from two other hospitals were collected as the external validation cohort. Eight clinical patient characteristics were recorded, and 20 tumor radiological features were quantitatively measured and qualitatively analyzed. In the training cohort, the differences in clinical characteristics and radiological features were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis. A nomogram was created, and the predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated in the validation cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC) value were used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the model. In addition, the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and calibration curve were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the model, and the decision curve was used to analyze the model’s clinical application value. RESULTS: The best predictors included gender, the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), consolidation-to-tumor ratio (CTR), density type, and distal ribbon sign. Among these, the tumor density type [odds ratio (OR): 6.738] and distal ribbon sign (OR: 5.141) were independent risk factors for predicting the STAS status. Moreover, three different STAS prediction models were constructed, i.e., a clinical, radiological, and combined model. The clinical model comprised gender and the CEA, the radiological model included the CTR, density type, and distal ribbon sign, and the combined model comprised the above two models. A DeLong test results revealed that the combined model was superior to the clinical model in all three cohorts and superior to the radiological model in the external validation cohort; the cohort AUC values were 0.874, 0.822, and 0.810, respectively. The results also showed that the combined model had the highest diagnostic efficacy among the models. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed that the combined model showed a good fit in all three cohorts, and the calibration curve showed that the predicted probability value of the combined model was in good agreement with the actual STAS status. Finally, the decision curve showed that the combined model had a better clinical application value than the clinical and radiological models. CONCLUSION: The nomogram created in this study, based on clinical characteristics and radiological features, has a high diagnostic efficiency for predicting the STAS status in patients with clinical stage IA NSCLC and may support the creation of personalized treatment strategies before surgery.