Trends in migraine incidence among women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2019 and the prediction for 2030: an analysis of national data in China

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a primary headache, which has been producing heavy disease burden globally. There is no data on the incidence of migraine among women of childbearing age worldwide, including China. This study aimed to investigate the time trend in incidence rate of migraine among women of childbearing age in China from 1999 to 2019, and to make a prediction for 2030. METHODS: Data on migraine incidence and population among women of childbearing age in China were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates of migraine (CIR, ASIR) were presented. The trend in migraine during 1990–2019 was examined using annual percent change and average annual percent change based on Joinpoint regression models. Age-period-cohort model was introduced to estimate the independent effect of age, period and cohort on migraine incidence rate among participants over the three decades. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to predict migraine incidence rate for 2030 among women of childbearing age in China. RESULTS: For women of childbearing age in China, the case number, CIR and ASIR of migraine kept rising, with a cumulative percentage increase of 10.87%, 2.01% and 5.65%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. An annual percent increase of 0.18% in the ASIR was observed over the three decades. As for the age, period and cohort effects, the adjusted cohort-specific relative risks constantly increased from 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90, 0.93) in the 1940–1949 cohort to 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.05) in the 1995–2004 cohort, while the period-specific relative risks initially declined from 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.00) in 1990–1994 cohort to 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98, 0.99) in 1995–1999 cohort, and then increased to 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.04) in 2015–2019 cohort. Moreover, the age-specific relative risks of migraine followed a bimodal pattern with peaks at the age-group of 25–29 years (CIR = 1718.27/100000) and 35–39 years (CIR = 1635.18/100000). Projection modeling showed that the CIR and ASIR of migraine will continue to significantly increase from 2020 to 2030. CONCLUSION: Migraine incidence remained an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019 and is projected to continually increase till 2030 among women of childbearing age in China. This study has important public health implication for population-level migraine prevention in China. Precision intervention strategies and approaches shall be considered in campaigns initiated for migraine prevention among Chinese women of childbearing age.