Prognostic potential of preoperative circulating tumor cells to predict the early progression recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND: The role of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in prognosis prediction has been actively studied in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, their efficiency in accurately predicting early progression recurrence (EPR) is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the clinical potential of preoperative CTCs to predict EPR in HCC patients after hepatectomy. METHODS: One hundred forty-five HCC patients, whose preoperative CTCs were detected, were enrolled. Based on the recurrence times and types, the patients were divided into four groups, including early oligo-recurrence (EOR), EPR, late oligo-recurrence (LOR), and late progression recurrence (LPR). RESULTS: Among the 145 patients, 133 (91.7%) patients had a postoperative recurrence, including 51 EOR, 42 EPR, 39 LOR, and 1 LPR patient. Kaplan–Meier survival curve analysis indicated that the HCC patients with EPR had the worst OS. There were significant differences in the total-CTCs (T-CTCs) and CTCs subtypes count between the EPR group with EOR and LOR groups. Cox regression analysis indicated that the T-CTC count of > 5/5 mL, the presence of microvascular invasion (MVI) and satellite nodules were the independent risk factors for EPR. The efficiency of T-CTCs was superior as compared to those of the other indicators in predicting EPR. Moreover, the combined model demonstrated a markedly superior area under the curve (AUC). CONCLUSIONS: The HCC patients with EPR had the worst OS. The preoperative CTCs was served as a prognostic indicator of EPR for HCC patients. The combined models, including T-CTCs, MVI, and satellite nodules, had the best performance to predict EPR after hepatectomy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11629-0.