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Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria

Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Niger...

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Autores principales: McKendrick, James Q., Tennant, Warren S. D., Tildesley, Michael J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10681316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37956170
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543
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author McKendrick, James Q.
Tennant, Warren S. D.
Tildesley, Michael J.
author_facet McKendrick, James Q.
Tennant, Warren S. D.
Tildesley, Michael J.
author_sort McKendrick, James Q.
collection PubMed
description Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018–2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period.
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spelling pubmed-106813162023-11-13 Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria McKendrick, James Q. Tennant, Warren S. D. Tildesley, Michael J. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018–2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period. Public Library of Science 2023-11-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10681316/ /pubmed/37956170 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 Text en © 2023 McKendrick et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
McKendrick, James Q.
Tennant, Warren S. D.
Tildesley, Michael J.
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title_full Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title_fullStr Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title_short Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
title_sort modelling seasonality of lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in nigeria
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10681316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37956170
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543
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