The cost‐effectiveness of NT‐proBNP for assessment of suspected acute heart failure in the emergency department

AIMS: When relying on clinical assessment alone, an estimated 22% of acute heart failure (AHF) patients are missed, so clinical guidelines recommend the use of N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) for AHF diagnosis. Since publication of these guidelines, there has been poor uptake of NT‐proBNP testing in part due to concerns over excessive false positive referrals resulting from the low specificity of a single ‘rule‐out’ threshold of <300 pg/mL. Low specificity can be mitigated by the addition of age‐specific ‘rule‐in’ NT‐proBNP thresholds. METHODS AND RESULTS: A theoretical hybrid decision tree/semi‐Markov model was developed, combining global trial and audit data to evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of NT‐proBNP testing using age‐specific rule‐in/rule‐out (RI/RO) thresholds, compared with NT‐proBNP RO only and with clinical decision alone (CDA). Cost‐effectiveness was measured as the incremental cost per quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) gained and incremental net health benefit. In the base case, using UK‐specific inputs, NT‐proBNP RI/RO was associated with both greater QALYs and lower costs than CDA. At a willingness‐to‐pay threshold of £20 000/QALY, NT‐proBNP RO was also cost‐effective compared with CDA [incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £8322/QALY], but not cost‐effective vs. RI/RO (ICER of £64 518/QALY). Overall, NT‐proBNP RI/RO was the most cost‐effective strategy. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken; the conclusions were not impacted by plausible variations in parameters, and similar conclusions were obtained for the Netherlands and Spain. CONCLUSIONS: An NT‐proBNP strategy that combines an RO threshold with age‐specific RI thresholds provides a cost‐effective alternative to the currently recommended NT‐proBNP RO only strategy, achieving greater diagnostic specificity with minimal reduction in sensitivity and thus reducing unnecessary echocardiograms and hospital admissions.