Effective gestational weight gain advice to optimize infant birth weight in Japan based on quantile regression analysis

The optimal range of gestational weight gain (GWG) was recently raised in Japan. This may help reduce small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, but may also increase large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants. This study performed hypothetical experiments to determine effective GWG advice based on quantile regression analysis. In a total of 354,401 singleton pregnancies registered in the perinatal database of the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology (2013–2017), the proportions of SGA and LGA were 9.33% and 11.13%, respectively. Using regression coefficients of GWG across the birth weight-for-gestational-age quantile distribution, we analyzed changes in their proportions by simulating a uniform 3-kg extra increase in GWG or an increase or decrease based on GWG adequacy. A hypothetical experiment of a uniform increase in GWG resulted in SGA and LGA proportions of 7.26% (95% confidence interval 7.15–7.36) and 14.51% (14.37–14.66), respectively. By contrast, assuming a 3-kg increase in women with inadequate GWG and a 3-kg decrease in women with excessive GWG resulted in SGA and LGA proportions of 8.42% (8.31–8.54) and 11.50% (11.37–11.62), respectively. Our real-world data analysis suggests that careful adjustment of GWG based on GWG adequacy will be effective in optimizing infant birth weight in Japan