Predicting stereotactic radiosurgery outcomes with multi-observer qualitative appearance labelling versus MRI radiomics

Qualitative observer-based and quantitative radiomics-based analyses of T1w contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (T1w-CE MRI) have both been shown to predict the outcomes of brain metastasis (BM) stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Comparison of these methods and interpretation of radiomics-based machine learning (ML) models remains limited. To address this need, we collected a dataset of n = 123 BMs from 99 patients including 12 clinical features, 107 pre-treatment T1w-CE MRI radiomic features, and BM post-SRS progression scores. A previously published outcome model using SRS dose prescription and five-way BM qualitative appearance scoring was evaluated. We found high qualitative scoring interobserver variability across five observers that negatively impacted the model’s risk stratification. Radiomics-based ML models trained to replicate the qualitative scoring did so with high accuracy (bootstrap-corrected AUC = 0.84–0.94), but risk stratification using these replicated qualitative scores remained poor. Radiomics-based ML models trained to directly predict post-SRS progression offered enhanced risk stratification (Kaplan–Meier rank-sum p = 0.0003) compared to using qualitative appearance. The qualitative appearance scoring enabled interpretation of the progression radiomics-based ML model, with necrotic BMs and a subset of heterogeneous BMs predicted as being at high-risk of post-SRS progression, in agreement with current radiobiological understanding. Our study’s results show that while radiomics-based SRS outcome models out-perform qualitative appearance analysis, qualitative appearance still provides critical insight into ML model operation.