Effects of Substance Use and Antisocial Personality on Neuroimaging-Based Machine Learning Prediction of Schizophrenia

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Neuroimaging-based machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to aid the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia. However, literature on the effect of prevalent comorbidities such as substance use disorder (SUD) and antisocial personality (ASPD) on these models’ performance has remained unexplored. We investigated whether the presence of SUD or ASPD affects the performance of neuroimaging-based ML models trained to discern patients with schizophrenia (SCH) from controls. STUDY DESIGN: We trained an ML model on structural MRI data from public datasets to distinguish between SCH and controls (SCH = 347, controls = 341). We then investigated the model’s performance in two independent samples of individuals undergoing forensic psychiatric examination: sample 1 was used for sensitivity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 52) from SCH (N = 66), and sample 2 was used for specificity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 26) from controls (N = 25). Both samples included individuals with SUD. STUDY RESULTS: In sample 1, 94.4% of SCH with comorbid ASPD and SUD were classified as SCH, followed by patients with SCH + SUD (78.8% classified as SCH) and patients with SCH (60.0% classified as SCH). The model failed to discern SCH without comorbidities from ASPD + SUD (AUC = 0.562, 95%CI = 0.400–0.723). In sample 2, the model’s specificity to predict controls was 84.0%. In both samples, about half of the ASPD + SUD were misclassified as SCH. Data-driven functional characterization revealed associations between the classification as SCH and cognition-related brain regions. CONCLUSION: Altogether, ASPD and SUD appear to have effects on ML prediction performance, which potentially results from converging cognition-related brain abnormalities between SCH, ASPD, and SUD.