Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio is associated with regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes in adults: a 5-year cohort study in China

OBJECTIVE: The current body of evidence on the association between the ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia remains limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia in patients with prediabetes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 15,107 individuals with prediabetes from 32 Chinese districts and 11 cities who completed health checks from 2010 to 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model examined baseline TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting determined the non-linear connection between TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia. We also ran sensitivity and subgroup analysis. By characterizing progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemic event, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model with competing risks was created. RESULTS: Upon adjusting for covariates, the findings indicate a negative association between TG/HDL-c and the likelihood of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 0.869, 95%CI:0.842–0.897). Additionally, a non-linear relationship between TG/HDL-c and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia was observed, with an inflection point of 1.675. The HR on the left side of the inflection point was 0.748 (95%CI:0.699, 0.801). The robustness of our results was confirmed through competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and a series of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The present study reveals a negative and non-linear correlation between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia among Chinese individuals with prediabetes. The findings of this study are anticipated to serve as a valuable resource for clinicians in managing dyslipidemia in prediabetic patients. Interventions aimed at reducing the TG/HDL-c ratio through the reduction of TG or elevation of HDL-c levels may substantially enhance the likelihood of achieving normoglycemia in individuals with prediabetes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04752-w.