Comprehensive integrated analysis of MR and DCE-MR radiomics models for prognostic prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Although prognostic prediction of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains a pivotal research area, the role of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE-MR) has been less explored. This study aimed to investigate the role of DCR-MR in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with NPC using magnetic resonance (MR)- and DCE-MR-based radiomic models. A total of 434 patients with two MR scanning sequences were included. The MR- and DCE-MR-based radiomics models were developed based on 289 patients with only MR scanning sequences and 145 patients with four additional pharmacokinetic parameters (volume fraction of extravascular extracellular space (v(e)), volume fraction of plasma space (v(p)), volume transfer constant (K(trans)), and reverse reflux rate constant (k(ep)) of DCE-MR. A combined model integrating MR and DCE-MR was constructed. Utilizing methods such as correlation analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, we built the radiomics models. Finally, we calculated the net reclassification index and C-index to evaluate and compare the prognostic performance of the radiomics models. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis was performed to investigate the model’s ability to stratify risk in patients with NPC. The integration of MR and DCE-MR radiomic features significantly enhanced prognostic prediction performance compared to MR- and DCE-MR-based models, evidenced by a test set C-index of 0.808 vs 0.729 and 0.731, respectively. The combined radiomics model improved net reclassification by 22.9%–52.6% and could significantly stratify the risk levels of patients with NPC (p = 0.036). Furthermore, the MR-based radiomic feature maps achieved similar results to the DCE-MR pharmacokinetic parameters in terms of reflecting the underlying angiogenesis information in NPC. Compared to conventional MR-based radiomics models, the combined radiomics model integrating MR and DCE-MR showed promising results in delivering more accurate prognostic predictions and provided more clinical benefits in quantifying and monitoring phenotypic changes associated with NPC prognosis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42492-023-00149-0.