Cargando…
Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10690762/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38046615 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126 |
_version_ | 1785152591006531584 |
---|---|
author | Ji, Biyong Yu, Kunyong Wang, Fan Ge, Hongli Liu, Jian |
author_facet | Ji, Biyong Yu, Kunyong Wang, Fan Ge, Hongli Liu, Jian |
author_sort | Ji, Biyong |
collection | PubMed |
description | Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10690762 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-106907622023-12-02 Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model Ji, Biyong Yu, Kunyong Wang, Fan Ge, Hongli Liu, Jian Front Plant Sci Plant Science Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-11-17 /pmc/articles/PMC10690762/ /pubmed/38046615 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126 Text en Copyright © 2023 Ji, Yu, Wang, Ge and Liu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Plant Science Ji, Biyong Yu, Kunyong Wang, Fan Ge, Hongli Liu, Jian Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title | Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title_full | Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title_fullStr | Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title_full_unstemmed | Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title_short | Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
title_sort | simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of china using a nonlinear difference equation system model |
topic | Plant Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10690762/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38046615 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT jibiyong simulationandpredictionofchangesintreespeciescompositioninsubtropicalforestsofchinausinganonlineardifferenceequationsystemmodel AT yukunyong simulationandpredictionofchangesintreespeciescompositioninsubtropicalforestsofchinausinganonlineardifferenceequationsystemmodel AT wangfan simulationandpredictionofchangesintreespeciescompositioninsubtropicalforestsofchinausinganonlineardifferenceequationsystemmodel AT gehongli simulationandpredictionofchangesintreespeciescompositioninsubtropicalforestsofchinausinganonlineardifferenceequationsystemmodel AT liujian simulationandpredictionofchangesintreespeciescompositioninsubtropicalforestsofchinausinganonlineardifferenceequationsystemmodel |