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Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model

Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on...

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Autores principales: Ji, Biyong, Yu, Kunyong, Wang, Fan, Ge, Hongli, Liu, Jian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10690762/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38046615
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126
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author Ji, Biyong
Yu, Kunyong
Wang, Fan
Ge, Hongli
Liu, Jian
author_facet Ji, Biyong
Yu, Kunyong
Wang, Fan
Ge, Hongli
Liu, Jian
author_sort Ji, Biyong
collection PubMed
description Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition.
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spelling pubmed-106907622023-12-02 Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model Ji, Biyong Yu, Kunyong Wang, Fan Ge, Hongli Liu, Jian Front Plant Sci Plant Science Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-11-17 /pmc/articles/PMC10690762/ /pubmed/38046615 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126 Text en Copyright © 2023 Ji, Yu, Wang, Ge and Liu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Plant Science
Ji, Biyong
Yu, Kunyong
Wang, Fan
Ge, Hongli
Liu, Jian
Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title_full Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title_fullStr Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title_full_unstemmed Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title_short Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model
title_sort simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of china using a nonlinear difference equation system model
topic Plant Science
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10690762/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38046615
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1280126
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