Quartets enable statistically consistent estimation of cell lineage trees under an unbiased error and missingness model

Cancer progression and treatment can be informed by reconstructing its evolutionary history from tumor cells. Although many methods exist to estimate evolutionary trees (called phylogenies) from molecular sequences, traditional approaches assume the input data are error-free and the output tree is fully resolved. These assumptions are challenged in tumor phylogenetics because single-cell sequencing produces sparse, error-ridden data and because tumors evolve clonally. Here, we study the theoretical utility of methods based on quartets (four-leaf, unrooted phylogenetic trees) in light of these barriers. We consider a popular tumor phylogenetics model, in which mutations arise on a (highly unresolved) tree and then (unbiased) errors and missing values are introduced. Quartets are then implied by mutations present in two cells and absent from two cells. Our main result is that the most probable quartet identifies the unrooted model tree on four cells. This motivates seeking a tree such that the number of quartets shared between it and the input mutations is maximized. We prove an optimal solution to this problem is a consistent estimator of the unrooted cell lineage tree; this guarantee includes the case where the model tree is highly unresolved, with error defined as the number of false negative branches. Lastly, we outline how quartet-based methods might be employed when there are copy number aberrations and other challenges specific to tumor phylogenetics. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13015-023-00248-w.