Cargando…
A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-relate...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692120/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040786 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4 |
_version_ | 1785152873239150592 |
---|---|
author | Bai, Jie Xu, Manman Peng, Fengling Gong, Junwei Song, Xiaodong Li, Yongguo |
author_facet | Bai, Jie Xu, Manman Peng, Fengling Gong, Junwei Song, Xiaodong Li, Yongguo |
author_sort | Bai, Jie |
collection | PubMed |
description | There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518–0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747–0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730–0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10692120 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-106921202023-12-03 A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure Bai, Jie Xu, Manman Peng, Fengling Gong, Junwei Song, Xiaodong Li, Yongguo Sci Rep Article There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518–0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747–0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730–0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-12-02 /pmc/articles/PMC10692120/ /pubmed/38040786 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Bai, Jie Xu, Manman Peng, Fengling Gong, Junwei Song, Xiaodong Li, Yongguo A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title | A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title_full | A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title_fullStr | A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title_short | A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
title_sort | nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with hbv-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692120/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040786 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT baijie anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT xumanman anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT pengfengling anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT gongjunwei anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT songxiaodong anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT liyongguo anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT baijie nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT xumanman nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT pengfengling nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT gongjunwei nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT songxiaodong nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure AT liyongguo nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure |