Cargando…

A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure

There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-relate...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bai, Jie, Xu, Manman, Peng, Fengling, Gong, Junwei, Song, Xiaodong, Li, Yongguo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692120/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040786
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4
_version_ 1785152873239150592
author Bai, Jie
Xu, Manman
Peng, Fengling
Gong, Junwei
Song, Xiaodong
Li, Yongguo
author_facet Bai, Jie
Xu, Manman
Peng, Fengling
Gong, Junwei
Song, Xiaodong
Li, Yongguo
author_sort Bai, Jie
collection PubMed
description There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518–0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747–0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730–0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10692120
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-106921202023-12-03 A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure Bai, Jie Xu, Manman Peng, Fengling Gong, Junwei Song, Xiaodong Li, Yongguo Sci Rep Article There is a lack of scoring system to predict the occurrence of cirrhosis in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the absence of cirrhosis. The goal of this study was to develop a psoas muscle index (PMI)-based nomogram for cirrhosis risk in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related ACLF. We included 274 non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients who were randomly assigned to training and validation groups. Logistic analyses were performed to identify risk factors for cirrhosis. A nomogram was then constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). During the 360-day follow-up, 44.5% (122/274) of non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients developed cirrhosis. A higher PMI at the L3 level was correlated with a decreased risk of long-term cirrhosis occurrence (OR 0.677, 95% CI 0.518–0.885, P = 0.004). The nomogram incorporating PMI, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and international normalized ratio (INR), indicated satisfactory predictive performance for cirrhosis risk stratification in ACLF population. The nomograms had an AUROC of 0.812 (95% CI 0.747–0.866) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.730–0.896) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves displayed excellent predictive accuracy of the nomogram in both sets. In both cohorts, the DCA verified the nomogram's clinical efficacy. In non-cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients, a greater PMI appears to protect against long-term cirrhosis occurrence. Strong predictive performance has been demonstrated by PMI-based nomograms in assessing the likelihood of 1-year cirrhosis in those with HBV-ACLF. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-12-02 /pmc/articles/PMC10692120/ /pubmed/38040786 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Bai, Jie
Xu, Manman
Peng, Fengling
Gong, Junwei
Song, Xiaodong
Li, Yongguo
A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title_full A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title_fullStr A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title_full_unstemmed A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title_short A nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
title_sort nomogram based on psoas muscle index predicting long-term cirrhosis incidence in non-cirrhotic patients with hbv-related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692120/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040786
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-47463-4
work_keys_str_mv AT baijie anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT xumanman anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT pengfengling anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT gongjunwei anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT songxiaodong anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT liyongguo anomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT baijie nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT xumanman nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT pengfengling nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT gongjunwei nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT songxiaodong nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure
AT liyongguo nomogrambasedonpsoasmuscleindexpredictinglongtermcirrhosisincidenceinnoncirrhoticpatientswithhbvrelatedacuteonchronicliverfailure