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Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution

Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially acc...

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Autores principales: Noël, Brice, van Wessem, J. Melchior, Wouters, Bert, Trusel, Luke, Lhermitte, Stef, van den Broeke, Michiel R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692123/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040701
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6
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author Noël, Brice
van Wessem, J. Melchior
Wouters, Bert
Trusel, Luke
Lhermitte, Stef
van den Broeke, Michiel R.
author_facet Noël, Brice
van Wessem, J. Melchior
Wouters, Bert
Trusel, Luke
Lhermitte, Stef
van den Broeke, Michiel R.
author_sort Noël, Brice
collection PubMed
description Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated.
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spelling pubmed-106921232023-12-03 Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution Noël, Brice van Wessem, J. Melchior Wouters, Bert Trusel, Luke Lhermitte, Stef van den Broeke, Michiel R. Nat Commun Article Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-12-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10692123/ /pubmed/38040701 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Noël, Brice
van Wessem, J. Melchior
Wouters, Bert
Trusel, Luke
Lhermitte, Stef
van den Broeke, Michiel R.
Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title_full Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title_fullStr Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title_full_unstemmed Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title_short Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
title_sort higher antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10692123/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38040701
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6
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