The GLVC scoring system: a single-center model for predicting survival and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is the only cardiovascular disease with an ever-increasing incidence. AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the predictors of adverse clinical events (CE) and the creation and evaluation of the prognostic value of a novel personalized scoring system in patients with HF. METHODS: The study included 113 HF patients (median age 64 years (IQR 58–69); 57.52% male). The new novel prognostic score named GLVC (G, global longitudinal peak strain (GLPS); L, left ventricular diastolic diameter (LVDD); V, oxygen pulse (VO(2)/HR); and C, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP)) was created. The Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to compare the CE. RESULTS: Results from final analyses showed that low GLPS (< 13.9%, OR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.01–4.30, p = 0.002), high LVDD (> 56 mm, OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.01–5.55, p = 0.045), low oxygen pulse (< 10, OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.17–6.70, p = 0.019), and high hs-CRP (> 2.38 µg/ml, OR = 2.93, 95% CI = 1.31–6.54, p = 0.007) were independent prognostic factors for adverse CE in HF population. All the patients were stratified into a low-risk or high-risk group according to a novel “GLVC” scoring system. The Kaplan–Meier analyses demonstrated that patients in the high-risk group were more predisposed to having higher adverse clinical events compared to patients in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: A novel and comprehensive personalized “GLVC” scoring system is an easily available and effective tool for predicting the adverse outcomes in HF. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text]