Association between the MCP-1 -2518 A > G (rs1024611) polymorphism and susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus and diabetic nephropathy: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating the association between monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) -2518 A > G (rs1024611) polymorphism and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and diabetic nephropathy (DN) are contradictory. The present study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment and more reliable estimation of the relationship between the MCP-1 rs1024611 polymorphism and T2DM and DN risk. METHODS: Eligible articles were retrieved from the PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Cochrane, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. The effect summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained to calculate the summary effect size. Heterogeneity was analyzed by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. Publication bias was tested using funnel plots and Egger’s test. RESULTS: In total, sixteen studies were included. Thirteen studies involving 2,363 patients with T2DM and 4,650 healthy controls found no significant association between the MCP-1 rs1024611 polymorphism and T2DM in the overall population. Ethnicity stratification found an association between the GG + GA genotype and decreased T2DM risk in Caucasians (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66–0.93, P = 0.006; P(Q) = 0.372). No significant risks were found in the Asian population for any genetic models. Seven studies found an association between the GG + GA genotype and DN risk in the Asian population (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.11–1.71, P = 0.004, P(Q) = 0.222). No significant risks were found in the Caucasian population with any genetic models. There were no statistically significant differences in genotype distribution between patients with T2DM and DN in Asians or Caucasians. Meta-regression revealed that genotyping method was a major driver of heterogeneity in five genetic models (GG + GA vs. AA: P = 0.032; GG vs. GA + AA: P = 0.028; GG vs. AA: P = 0.035; GG vs. GA: P = 0.041; G vs. A: P = 0.041). CONCLUSION: The MCP-1 rs1024611 polymorphism is associated with susceptibility to T2DM in Caucasians and DN in Asians. Larger, well-designed cohort studies are needed in the future to verify this association. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12902-023-01514-z.